Airbus is a key player when it comes to aircraft manufacturing. Recently, Airbus delivered the first A321XLR to Iberia. However, now that Airbus has delivered the first A321XLR what is next for Airbus? Will they build a new clean-sheet design or modify an existing aircraft to create a new variant as they did with the A320/A321 to create the A321XLR? In this blog post, I take a look at some possibilities of what is next for Airbus?
Airbus already has some aircraft that it can focus on.
Airbus will continue to work on its A350 Freighter aircraft which as of January 2024, has 50 orders.
Additionally, Airbus has a substantial delivery backlog of aircraft from a variety of customers that they will want to get delivered. This backlog includes many aircraft types such as the A320neo and more A321XLRs as only one has been delivered at the time of writing.
First, I will explore the possibility of Airbus modifying an existing aircraft.
Could Airbus modify the A320 family or the A220 aircraft?
I feel that this is unlikely as the A318 and A319 (including the A319neo) were not very popular aircraft and any airline would probably use the A320 to fill the role that these smaller planes would fill. I also feel that modifying the A220 is unlikely. As I've said before, the A318 and A319 were unpopular so Airbus will probably not shorten the A320 again or reduce its range. Lengthening the A220 or increasing its range is probably unlikely as this would cannibalize sales for the extremely popular and successful A320 aircraft.
However, could Airbus modify the A220?
The A220 is a popular aircraft and already has many customers including Air France, airBaltic, Delta, JetBlue and many more.
The delivery time for A320 aircraft is long. If Airbus modified the A220 aircraft to overlap with the A320neo then more customers may be attracted to order this newer variant of the A220 as they could get their aircraft faster. However, the A220 does not have fleet commonality with the A320 which is a major attraction to airlines due to lower training, maintenance and operating costs.
If Airbus was to modify the A220 then customers who already operate the aircraft could avail of fleet commonality and use it on longer routes.
I think that Airbus could modify the A220 in order to gain more customers.
Could Airbus do something with the A330?
If Airbus was to do something with the A330 they would more likely focus on the A330neo instead of the A330ceo. Airbus has constantly been modifying and upgrading the A330neo to make it more efficient and more attractive to customers. These modifications include: changes to the wing, using composite materials, increasing the wingspan to 64 meters and using sharklets on the wingtips. These changes mean that the A330neo is more efficient than the A330ceo and Boeing 767. Airbus could make further modifications to the aircraft to attract more customers.
Could Airbus do something with the A350?
I feel that this is an unlikely option as the A350 is a modern, quiet and fuel efficient aircraft. Unless Airbus was to make smaller modifications like they did with the A330neo to constantly upgrade it I feel that this option is unlikely. However, it would be hard to know what to upgrade since it is so technologically advanced, fuel efficient and uses composite materials.
Could Airbus do something with the A380?
Although Airbus no longer produces the A380 they have not ruled out modifying the A380, creating an 'A380neo' or 'A380 plus'. I believe that many aviation enthusiasts would want to see another A380. Emirates has also expressed their desire to see such an aircraft.
I feel that Airbus may want to focus on another high capacity aircraft. The maximum capacity of the A380 is 853 passengers, although no airline flies this capacity. (British Airways A380s have 469 seats while Emirates' A380s can seat between 484 and 615 passengers). In comparison, the A350 can seat between 300 - 410 passengers. This is quite a difference so Airbus may want to create another aircraft for high capacity flights.
It is worth noting that Airbus may not modify an existing jet or even create a new clean-sheet design. Instead, Airbus may focus on other areas such as its space, military and helicopter divisions.
Airbus may also decide to focus on its aircraft of the future, focusing on electric and hydrogen powered aircraft with its ZEROe program. Airbus aims to bring its first hydrogen-powered commercial aircraft to the market by 2035. With just over 10 years to go Airbus may decide not to create a new aircraft but focus on the ZEROe program.
Next, I will explore what new clean-sheet designs Airbus could come up with.
Airbus may decide to create a new clean-sheet design instead of modifying an existing aircraft. So what could a new clean-sheet design look like?
We can assume that any new clean-sheet design would have to be:
Very fuel efficient
Quieter than previous generation aircraft
Be able to run on SAF (or be able to run on SAF in the future)
One possibility could be something similar to the A320neo. A short-medium range aircraft with 150-200 seats (slightly larger than the A320neo which has a maximum capacity if 180). However, I do believe that this is unlikely as the A320 family is popular and it would be damaging to Airbus to create something that could potentially cannibalize the sales of its most popular aircraft.
Another possibility, and something I think is a bit more realistic is a high capacity aircraft, similar to the A380. I believe it will be similar to the A350 and include new technologies and advanced engineering (like how the Boeing 777X has folding wingtips). The A350 can carry 300-410 passengers (depending on the variant and airline configuration). This new aircraft would be capable of carrying around 500 passengers in a 3-4-3, 10 abreast configuration. I do think that this new aircraft could be a double decker or at least partially double decker based on the A380 aircraft, however, I believe that the new aircraft could be achieved by lengthening the fuselage of the A350. The longer length combined with the 10 across seating in economy class could be capable of carrying around 500 passengers. (However, the total number of seats would depend on airline configuration of the aircraft).
Another possibility could be a replacement for the A330 and A340 aircraft. This new long-haul aircraft could carry between 250-440 passengers which is the current A330-300 capacity. However, I do think that this is unlikely as the A330neo program is relatively young and Airbus is constantly upgrading the A330neo to make sure it is more efficient and better suited to the needs of the airlines.
Overall, it is clear that Airbus has multiple options for what aircraft they could design next. In my opinion it is unlikely that Airbus will create an aircraft that is similar to the A320 family as this would cannibalize sales of their most popular aircraft. Instead, I believe that it is more likely that Airbus could focus on a high capacity aircraft to replace the A380. Of course, Airbus will continue to work on the A350 Freighter and their ZEROe program. It is also worth considering that Airbus may design a new aircraft while also working on existing projects. Alternatively, Airbus may not create a new aircraft instead, choosing to focus on their existing aircraft delivery backlog and existing projects.
Whatever comes next, I'm excited to see what Airbus comes up with.
What do you think? Do you think Airbus will produce a new clean-sheet design or modify an existing aircraft? If so, what do you think it will be like? If not, what do you think Airbus will focus on instead?
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Feel free to read an overview of the European plane maker by reading this blog post:
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